Press Interpreter

02/24/06 -- Interview with Pierre-Jean Luizard, researcher at CNRS and author of "The Iraq Question" (published by Fayard).

The attack on Wednesday on a Shiite mosque in Iraq provoked a wave of rioting and violence. Just in Baghdad, tens of Sunnis have been found dead. How are these recent events foreshadowed by the history of the relations between these two communities in Iraq?

There has existed in Iraq for the past two years a creeping civil war between the majority Shiites, who are in power, and the minority Sunnis, who represent close to 20% of the Iraqi population. It was triggered by Sunni fundamentalists linked to al Qaeda. They decided to make war against the Shiites of Iraq, which is to say against the United States as it is represented in the Iraqi community. This war has already killed tens of thousands, notably Shiites, the victims of waves of attacks.

By way of reprisal, the State engages in terrorism using death squads tied to the Ministry of the Interior -- which is controlled by the Shiites. They have sadly become famous for arbitrary detentions, with torture, and summary executions of Iraqi Sunnis.

Areas where there are zones of contact between the two groups are becoming front lines. This is notably the case in Baghdad. The curfew that was put in place is an admission by the leaders of the Shiites that there is indeed a religious war underway.

What is the cause of this recent surge of violence?

The worsening of the violence is the outcome of a broken political process. This process, sponsored by the Americans, founded the reconstruction of Iraq on the basis of faction. It is a system that excludes a certain number of Iraqis, notably the Sunnis. The place accorded to them is that of a minority without wealth and without power.

Furthermore, the last elections established the movement of Moqtada Al-Sadr as a political party of the first rank. It is perhaps a sign that today the Shiites are beginning to realise that they have reached the dead end created most notably by the religious and sectarian politics of Ayatollah Sistani. Moqtada Al-Sadr is certainly the best-positioned to create a Sunni-Shiite union. And such a union probably cannot be made except in an anti-American spirit.

What Will be the Consequences of These Recent Events?

This chain of events cannot produce any lasting resolution, not even partition, as some have said, between Sunnis and Shiites. With so much blood having been spilled, it will take much longer now to pick up the pieces and to restore confidence.

Certain numbers have called today for unity among Iraqis across religious lines. These attack the absence of a sovereign Iraqi government. They believe that the occupied status of the country is at the origin of this factional struggle.

If there is any difficulty in reaching consensus on the formation of a government, one of the first resolutions of the Iraqi Parliament could be to ask the Americans to establish a timetable for the withdrawal of their troops. And if the Americans are wise, they would catch the ball on the rebound and withdraw as quickly as possible with heads held high.

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Remarks collected by Constance Baudry and Cecile Fandos

--Translated by Chris Drake and Ramsi Woodcock

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